Decision Making and Risk Management:

A One Day Tutorial -- Saturday, April 24, 1999

Instructors:
  Mr. Bernard Morais, Synergistic Applications
  Dr. Brian W. Mar, Emeritus Professor, University of Washington

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This is a one day course highlighting how to improve your decision making and risk management when engineering systems in the current environment and where "cheaper, better, faster" is the name of the game.  This one-day course will allow you to determine the potential to improve your own decision making and risk management by:

1) formulating your decision making problems in a way experts can help you make better decisions and reduce the risk associated with these decisions

2) improving you ability to determine which experts and tools may help solve your decision making processes, or

3) actually continuing your education and learning more about systems engineering approaches to decision making and risk management.

WHAT'S IN THIS TUTORIAL:

1.  The engineering of complex systems using systems engineering processes:

• What is systems engineering?
• International and commercial systems engineering standards
• The basic concepts of systems engineering using functions, requirements, answer and test views
• The spiral life cycle using decision making and risk management

2.  Decision making using the systems approach:

• Power of the systems approach versus BOPSAT (bunch of people sitting around a table)
• How to develop a full set of alternatives
• How to develop decision criteria
• What is wrong with weighting and ranking?
• Should subjective information be included?
• Better versus best
• Quantitative versus qualitative decision support tools

3.  Risk assessment and management:

• Ostrich, probability, and inevitable views of risk
• Program risk, not fault or safety or body count
• Fail safe concepts (expected values, probabilities, and consequences)
• Safe fail concepts (coping with natural hazards)
• Witches, floods and wonder drugs - coping with the unknown
• Systems engineering your risk management

4.  Summary and what to do next:

Each of the three major topics will include a reading list indicating classical texts and courses that can provide additional knowledge on these topics as well as references to systems engineering applications of these concepts for the management and engineering of complex systems.  The course information is designed for those persons who have an engineering education or are practicing engineering that wish to improve their decision making and risk management skills.  The instructors will ask each student to identify their learning objectives for the day, and will then present their materials to specifically address these objectives in a manner that is concise, easy to understand, and in such depth that is needed to enhance the understanding of these subjects.

Each attendee will receive a printed copy of the course material (which is distributed on the day of the course).

About the Instructors

DR. BRIAN W. MAR is an Emeritus Professor of the University of Washington.  Prior to his retirement, he was at U of W for over 30 years and was a Professor of Civil and Systems Engineering.  The Boeing Company employed him for 10 years prior to joining the University of Washington.  He holds a Ph.D. in Chemical/Nuclear Engineering as well as several degrees in Civil and Chemical Engineering and has served on International and National councils and advisory boards.  He is a member of Phi Beta Kappa and Tau Beta Pi Honor Societies.  He is one of the founders and a Past President of INCOSE and has published several books and over 100 papers.

MR. BERNARD G. MORAIS is the President of Synergistic Applications, Inc. and has over thirty five years of Program management and Systems Engineering experience in industry.  He holds a BSEE from California State Polytechnic University and M.S. in Systems Management from the University of Southern California.  One of the more significant achievements in his career was leading the development of the first Systems Engineering Management Guide for the Defense Systems Management College when he was Director of Space Systems Division Systems Engineering for the Lockheed Missiles and Space Company.  He has provided consulting support and training for National and International government agencies as well as communications and energy companies.  He is a founding member of INCOSE, and was the first Treasurer.

ENROLLMENT AND CONTACT INFORMATION

Pre-Registration is Required:   Fill out and return the enrollment form provided.  Acceptable forms of payment are checks, bank drafts, and money orders (sorry, no purchase orders or credit cards).  Fees are payable to INCOSE.  To "reserve" a space in the tutorial when paying by company check, remit a personal check and attach a note to hold for company payment.

Confirming Enrollment:   Call 650-938-0553 if you do not receive an enrollment confirmation by by Tuesday, April 20, 1999.

Enrollment Packets:   A confirmation notice will be in the enrollment information package.  A map to San Jose State and the auditorium will be provided as well as parking information and a phone number to be used in an emergency.  Course material will be distributed on the day of the tutorial at the registration desk.  Registration begins at 8 a.m.  The course is scheduled to end at 5 p.m.

Lunch is Provided:   A one hour lunch break is scheduled.  Lunch will be provided and the entree will be a selection of sandwiches with various meats and cheeses.  Please list dietary restrictions on the enrollment form.

Cancellation Policy:   Full refunds will be made prior to April 16. The registration fee will also be refunded if the tutorial must be cancelled or rescheduled due to circumstances beyond our control.

Event Coordinator:   Ms. Mickey Farrance of ... to the Last Detail provides event operations support.  Enrollment status and changes should be given to

... to the Last Detail, at 650-938-0553 or incose@lastdetail.com

Our thanks to Dr. Ernest Unwin and San Jose State University for making SJSU facilities available for this tutorial.

For Information about INCOSE Tutorials: Bob Barter, at 925-422-5150, or rbarter@ix.netcom.com

San Francisco Bay Area Chapter
 
Read about our chapter activities at
http://www.incose.org/sfbac/

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Enrollment Form (Postmark by April 16, 1999)

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 To The Last Detail
 INCOSE Tutorial
 101 E. Middlefield Rd. #1
 Mountain View, CA 94043