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Subject: INCOSE Meeting Tues >> January 11th <<

International Council on Systems Engineering (INCOSE) San Francisco Bay Area Chapter

>>>> January 11th <<<<, Tuesday Evening Monthly Program
5:30 PM Social Half-Hour and dinner
6:00-7:00 Talk followed by questions.
Networking and sidebars to 8 PM.

Speaker:
Edouard Kujawski
Engineering Division, Ernest Orlando Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory,
University of California, Berkeley, California 94720
e_kujawski@lbl.gov

Topic: Quantifying the Effects of Budget Management on Project Cost and Success

Abstract
Today's typical probabilistic cost analysis assumes an "ideal" project in which whenever a cost element comes in low its savings are passed on where they are needed. Unfortunately in the real world “Money Allocated is Money Spent" (MAIMS principle), and cost underruns are rarely available to protect against cost overruns while task overruns are passed on to the total project cost. Realistic cost estimates require a modified probabilistic cost analysis because the project cost at a given confidence level cannot be estimated until the budget management practices including allocation is specified. We present a probabilistic cost analysis that integrates valid mathematical with sound management techniques to obtain realistic cost estimates and effectively achieve project success. The analysis is readily implemented using standard Monte Carlo simulation Excel add-ins. We illustrate the approach and its implications for a representative design and engineering project. The analysis substantiates that today's typical probabilistic cost analysis is likely to severely underestimate project cost for probability of success values of importance to contractors and procuring activities. Budget management practices have a substantial impact on the cost of the project and/or probability of success. Using this information we develop a viable strategy for effectively allocating budgets and managing contingencies.

Biography
Edouard Kujawski practices systems engineering at the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory. He specializes in the design and analysis of high reliability/availability systems, risk analysis, and the implementation of systems engineering practices. He has also held lead positions at General Electric and Lockheed-Martin. He has contributed to the design of particle accelerators, space observatories, commercial communication systems, the Space Station, and nuclear power plants. He has written and published several papers on risk analysis and decision analysis. He was a participant and contributor to the Lockheed Martin LM21 Risk Management Best Practices.

He serves on the board of directors of the San Francisco Bay Area Chapter of INCOSE. He recently taught systems engineering at San Jose State University. He received a Ph.D. in physics from MIT following which he spent several years in research and teaching.

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RSVP online at http://www.incose.org/sfbac/rsvp.html

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Tues >> January 11th <<:

5:30 PM Social Half-Hour and dinner
6:00-7:00 Talk followed by questions.
Networking and sidebars to 8 PM.

Place: Cisco Systems, SJ-I/1-Kodiak, 285 West Tasman Drive (corner Vista Montana)

Take the First Street exit off of Highway 237. South on First, right at Vista Montana, and just before Tasman, left into parking lot. Proceed to Building I. Come to the front door.

If arriving late, the meeting is in the conference room directly to the right of the front door - knock on the window to be let in. Maps at http://www.incose.org/sfbac/cisco-bldg_i.html

Donation: FREE for members; $4 for non-members

Reservations: RSVP online at http://www.incose.org/sfbac/rsvp.html

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Distance Participants:
Audio - 408-525-6064 (local) or 888-525-6064 (long distance)
MeetingID: 730611

Video - https://cisco.webex.com (PCs only) Session Number: 821874299

Distance participants please RSVP to cmcdevit@cisco.com to ensure we have enough lines. Also please plan to log on around 5:50 to establish hook-up.

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For more information, contact:
Carol Ann McDevitt, 408-525-4565, cmcdevit@cisco.com or Dorothy McKinney, 408-742-8790, dorothy.mckinney@lmco.com or Tom Jackson, 408-742-2013, t.l.jackson@lmco.com

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The INCOSE website is at http://www.incose.org

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The mission of the International Council on Systems Engineering (INCOSE), a non-profit professional society, is to "foster the definition, and practice of World Class Systems Engineering in industry, academia, and government."

The SF Bay Area Chapter presents thought-provoking monthly programs for its members and their guests. Learn about the INCOSE at www.incose.org.