To: Distribution
Subject: INCOSE Meeting Tues >> MAY 17 <<
International Council on Systems Engineering (INCOSE) San Francisco Bay Area Chapter
>>>> MAY 17 <<<<, Tuesday Evening Monthly Program
5:30 PM Social Half-Hour and hot snack
6:00-7:00 Talk followed by questions.
Networking and sidebars to 8 PM.
Speaker: Dr. William Roberds
Topic: Probabilistic risk-based cost and schedule estimating
Abstract:
The cost and schedule of many large infrastructure projects have been
significantly underestimated, especially early in design when decisions are
being made, leading to significant problems (e.g., the “Big
Dig”). Rather than developing a deterministic (single value) estimate,
which is based on a large number of reasonable assumptions that might
eventually turn out to be invalid and whose degree of conservatism is
somewhat arbitrary and unknown, it is suggested that the uncertainties in the
actual, ultimate cost and schedule be itemized and quantified. In this way,
the degree of confidence in any particular estimate, or an appropriate budget
and schedule with a particular chance of exceedance, can be determined, and
the risks can be meaningfully prioritized for management. This process, which
has been adopted and applied by various public agencies (including WSDOT and
USFTA), will be presented and discussed.
Bio:
Dr. William Roberds, Principal at Golder Associates Inc., Decision and Risk
Analyst (Redmond WA).
Bill has been with Golder Associates since 1980 – before which he
taught at several universities and worked for several other geotechnical
consultants. He is a recognized international expert in risk and decision
analysis. He has been responsible for a wide range of local, national, and
international projects related to various aspects of siting, investigation,
analysis, design, permitting, construction, operating, monitoring,
remediation, decommissioning and post-decommissioning of civil, mining and
environmental engineering projects, for a wide range of private and public
clients. Many of these projects included appropriate consideration of various
types of consequences, including their associated uncertainties, and multiple
stakeholders, including the public and regulators. Consensus on the technical
evaluations and on the decision based on these evaluations was typically
achieved on these projects through workshops he facilitated. Currently, he is
conducting probabilistic cost and schedule estimates on several
mega-projects, including numerous projects for WSDOT and for USFTA (including
redevelopment of World Trade Center in NYC). On the topic of risk and
decision analysis, Bill: has more than 80 published papers / reports and
presentations; serves on various national (e.g., ASCE and TRB) and
international (e.g. ISSMFE and IUGS) committees; serves as a professional
journal reviewer and advisor to various public agencies (e.g. USGS, USDOE,
FTA); speaks by invitation to various conferences, symposia and
organizations; presents workshops; and conducts funded research. Bill has an
M.S. and D.Sc. in Civil Engineering from MIT and a BS (with distinction) in
Civil Engineering from Stanford University.
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RSVP online at http://www.incose.org/sfbac/rsvp.html
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Distance Participants:
Audio - 877-384-0543, Passcode: 19693600
Video - https://cisco.webex.com (PCs
only) Session Number: 821874299
Distance participants please RSVP to cmcdevit@cisco.com to ensure we have enough lines. Also please plan to log on around 5:50 to establish hook-up.
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Place: Cisco Systems, SJ-I/1-Kodiak, 285 West Tasman Drive (corner Vista Montana)
Take the First Street exit off of Highway 237. South on First, right at Vista Montana, and just before Tasman, left into parking lot. Proceed to Building I. Come to the front door.
Maps at http://www.incose.org/sfbac/cisco-bldg_i.html
If arriving late, the meeting is in the conference room directly to the right of the front door - knock on the window to be let in.
Donation: FREE for members; $4 for non-members
Reservations: RSVP online at http://www.incose.org/sfbac/rsvp.html
For more information, contact:
Carol Ann McDevitt, 408-525-4565, cmcdevit@cisco.com or
Dorothy McKinney, 408-742-8790, dorothy.mckinney@lmco.com or
Tom Jackson, 408-742-2013, t.l.jackson@lmco.com
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The INCOSE website is at http://www.incose.org
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The mission of the International Council on Systems Engineering (INCOSE), a non-profit professional society, is to "foster the definition, and practice of World Class Systems Engineering in industry, academia, and government."
The SF Bay Area Chapter presents thought-provoking monthly programs for its members and their guests. Learn about the INCOSE at www.incose.org.