To: Distribution

Subject: INCOSE Meeting Tues >> November 08 <<

International Council on Systems Engineering (INCOSE) San Francisco Bay Area Chapter

>>>> November 08 <<<<, Tuesday Evening Monthly Program

5:30 PM Social Half-Hour and hot snack
6:00-7:00 Talk followed by questions.
Networking and sidebars to 8 PM.

Speaker:
Edouard Kujawski, Ph.D.
Associate Professor
Department of Systems Engineering
Naval Postgraduate School
Monterey, CA 93943
E-mail: ekujawsk@nps.edu
Telephone: (831) 656-3324

Topic: Regret as an Element of Rational Decision-Making

Abstract:
Today’s typical multi-criteria decision analysis is based on classical expected utility theory that assumes a mythical “Rational Individual” immune to psychological influences such as anticipated regret. It is therefore in conflict with rational individuals who trade-off some benefits and forgo the alternative with the highest total classical utility for a more balanced alternative in order to reduce their levels of anticipated regret. The presentation will focus on decision-making under certainty and present a Reference-Dependent Regret Model (RDRM) in which the level of regret that an individual experiences depends on the absolute values rather than the differences of the utilities of the chosen and forgone alternatives. The RDRM utilities of all the alternatives under consideration are interrelated.

The RDRM best choice may differ from the conventional linear additive utility model, the analytic hierarchy process, and regret theory. Examples will be presented that indicate that RDRM is the better predictive descriptor. RDRM satisfies transitivity of the alternatives under pairwise comparisons and models rank reversal consistent with observed reasonable choices under dynamic or distinct situations. For complex trade-off studies, regret is incorporated as an element of a cost-utility-regret analysis that characterizes each alternative in terms of its monetary cost, an aggregate performance utility, and a regret value. This approach provides decision makers adequate information to compare the alternatives, and depending on their values they may trade-off some performance and/or cost to avoid high levels of regret. The result is a well-balanced alternative often preferred by rational decision makers to the optimal choice of classical multi-attribute utility analysis. The model can readily be extended to incorporate rejoicing to suit decision makers who seek it.

Bio:
Edouard (Ed) Kujawski is an Associate Professor of Systems Engineering at the Naval Postgraduate School. He specializes in the design and analysis of high reliability/availability systems, risk analysis, and the implementation of systems engineering practices. He has held lead positions at the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Lockheed-Martin, and General Electric, where he contributed to the design of particle accelerators, space observatories, commercial communication systems, the Space Station, and nuclear power plants. He was a participant and contributor to the Lockheed Martin LM21 Risk Management Best Practices. He is a member of the SFBAC of INCOSE and serves on its board of directors. He received a Ph.D. in physics from MIT following which he spent several years in research and teaching.

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RSVP online at http://www.incose.org/sfbac/rsvp.html

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Distance Participants:
Audio - 877-384-0543, Passcode: 19693600
Video - https://cisco.webex.com (PCs only) Session Number: 821874299

Distance participants please RSVP to cmcdevit@cisco.com to ensure we have enough lines. Also please plan to log on around 5:50 to establish hook-up.

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Place: Cisco Systems, SJ-I/1-Kodiak, 285 West Tasman Drive (corner Vista Montana)

Take the First Street exit off of Highway 237. South on First, right at Vista Montana, and just before Tasman, left into parking lot. Proceed to Building I. Come to the front door.

Maps at http://www.incose.org/sfbac/cisco-bldg_i.html

If arriving late, the meeting is in the conference room directly to the right of the front door - knock on the window to be let in.

Donation: FREE for members; $4 for non-members

Reservations: RSVP online at http://www.incose.org/sfbac/rsvp.html

For more information, contact:
Carol Ann McDevitt, 408-525-4565, cmcdevit@cisco.com or
Dorothy McKinney, 408-742-8790, dorothy.mckinney@lmco.com or
Tom Jackson, 408-742-2013, t.l.jackson@lmco.com

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The INCOSE website is at http://www.incose.org

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The mission of the International Council on Systems Engineering (INCOSE), a non-profit professional society, is to "foster the definition, and practice of World Class Systems Engineering in industry, academia, and government."

The SF Bay Area Chapter presents thought-provoking monthly programs for its members and their guests. Learn about the INCOSE at www.incose.org.

Thank you,

Bruce Crawford
INCOSE SFBAC Secretary
INCOSE2004@comcast.net